Maplewood’s housing market is running hotter than conventional data suggests, according to a weekly index developed by Mark Slade, team lead of Mark Slade Homes. The standard metric used by most real estate agents—absorption rate, which measures closed sales divided by active inventory over the past six months—tends to lag behind current conditions. Slade and his partner MaryCeu Nunes have tracked commuter markets across Essex and Union counties for nearly 17 years using a different measure they call the “hyper market index.” This index compares the number of properties under contract to the combined total of active listings, properties in attorney review, and coming-soon inventory. When under-contracts exceed that combined figure, Slade defines it as a hyper market.
As of late June 2026, the index readings for six towns show Maplewood at 1.9, meaning there are nearly twice as many properties under contract as actively available. South Orange follows at 1.7, Union at 1.3, and West Orange at 1.1. Livingston, at 0.8, is the only town below the hyper threshold. Slade views any reading above 1.0 as a hyper market, indicating a significant imbalance favoring sellers. The index reflects recent buyer decisions made in the past one and a half to two and a half months, unlike the absorption rate, which averages performance over six months and can obscure current momentum.
Slade pulls his data directly from the Garden State MLS, the primary listing system for agents in this corridor. This contrasts with Zillow, which aggregates from multiple sources including private listings not on the Garden State MLS. The discrepancy means that Zillow’s market reads can be materially different from the actual conditions in the Garden State MLS-driven market. For buyers and sellers in Maplewood and South Orange, relying on Zillow’s numbers may lead to misinformed decisions.
The percent-over-asking figures reinforce the hyper market readings. In Maplewood, the average sale price has reached $1,323,000—up roughly $220,000 from year-end 2025—with properties selling at 16.1% over asking. South Orange is at 15.5% over asking, with an average price of $1,221,000. Both towns have seen significant increases since December, when South Orange’s hyper market ratio was 0.7. Livingston, despite having the second-highest average price at $1,350,000, shows the weakest percent-over-asking at 2.9% and a ratio of 0.8, indicating supply outpacing buyer commitment.
For buyers considering waiting, the data suggests the cost of deferring a purchase compounds quickly. In Maplewood, where average sale prices have risen roughly 22% since the end of last year, sitting out means watching the entry point move further away. Slade’s position is direct: in a market where demand runs at nearly twice the available supply, waiting does not preserve optionality. Buyers navigating the current market can find guidance on competitive offer situations and appraisal waiver programs on the buyer resources page at Mark Slade Homes.
